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决策与判断

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决策与判断

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《决策与判断》的对象是希望了解决策与判断心理学的基础知识的非专业人士。它着重是实验结果而不是心理学理论,是出人意料的结论而不是猜想,是对研究的描述而不是数学公式。一句话,这本书是想要大家高兴而且思考,同时也是为了传播和普及心理学的知识。
美国加州大学柏克利分校心理学教授
这本书充满了幽默感,对老的思想的新的解释,批判性思维的练习,从而把许多通
常不相关的材料整合成了一本令人遐思发人深省的好书。可以说,从来还没有一个年轻
作者的本著作能在一个重要的课题上对这么多的人产生如此大的影响。
——菲利普·津巴多
美国心理学会前任主席
如果能够有效地应用本书所描述的结果,你就会更好地避免决策偏差、误差和陷阱,而且你将会更好地理解他人所做的决策。
——斯科特·普劳斯
“《 决策与判断》是经典研究成果与该领域研究取向的完美结合……读者能亲身体验到这
一基础研究在其日常生活当中的应用。”
——伊丽莎白·洛夫特斯
美国心理协会实验心理学分会前任主席
Content Description

《 决策与判断》的对象是希望了解决策与判断心理学的基础知识的非专业人士。它着重是实验结果而不是心理学理论,是出人意料的结论而不是猜想,是对研究的描述而不是数学公式。一句话,这本书是想要大家高兴而且思考,同时也是为了传播和普及心理学的知识。
《 决策与判断》共分6部分,前两个部分主要介绍决策与判断的基本要素,包括知觉、记忆、情境和提问方式。第三和第四部分主要介绍决策的经典模式,并与最近有关判断偏差的新模式做对比。第五部分探讨由团体做出的判断和关于团体的判断。第六部分讨论决策与判断的一些常见的陷阱。章都设计成能够单独成立的专题,所以读者可以自由地跳跃不同的章节或随意地安排阅读顺序。
《 决策与判断》一个与众不同的地方就是第1章之前的读者调查,这个调查的问题是根据以后章节中涉及的研究问题改编和复制而成的。
Author Description

斯科特·普劳斯,获得过多种荣誉,包括国际和平与合作领域的麦克阿瑟奖,Gordon Allport Intergroup Relations奖,IAAP青年心理学家奖金,Slusser Peace Essay奖。他所教授的科目是决策与判断、社会心理学、统计学,以及研究方法。他已经在各类期刊(《今日心理学》,《心理科学》,《咨询与临床心理学》,《冲突解决》,以及《应用社会心理学》)上发表了二十多篇论文。
斯科特·普劳斯现在的研究兴趣集中在有关动物和环境的道德问题上,1991年,他发表了针对动物权利保护者的在样本调查结果,现在,他正在编辑一个有关人类社会中动物所扮演角色的专题,除了这些学术工作外,普劳斯还是大量政治和商业项目的顾问。
Comments

★这是一本汇集了许多心理学实验的书籍,行文比较严谨,内容很不错。它告诉我们,人类的决策和判断总会出现一些意想不到的偏差,只有认识到这一点,我们才能尽可能地避免决策偏差。
——wpsbo

★这本书用详实的数据展示了结论的得知过程,对我们了解逻辑,如何去正确的引导,判断有很好的帮助。的不足是,他只是阐述这个过程,如何从本书获得你想要的东西,需要自己的理解。因为这本书告诉你的只是一事实的推理,心理学在不断研究决策与判断的过程。如何运用不是他告诉你的目的。但是这是本优秀的书。他给了你可让你学习其它优秀管理者的方法。
——小熊
Catalogue

读者调查
第一部分 知觉、记忆和情境
第一章 选择性知觉
第二章 认识不协调
第三章 记忆和事后聪明式仿差
第四章 情境依赖性

第二部分 问题如何影响答案
第五章 可塑性
第六章 问题的措辞和框架的影响

第三部分 决策模型
第七章 期望效用理论
第八章 理性决策的勃论
第九章 描述性决策模型

第四部分 直觉与偏差
第十章 代表性直觉
第十一章 易得性直觉
第十二章 概率和风险
第十三章 锚定与调查
第十四章 对随机性的知觉
第十五章 相关、因果关系与控制
第十六章 归因理论

第五部分 决策与判断中的社会性一面
第十七章 社会影响
第十八章 群体决策与判断

第六部分 常见陷阱
第十九章 过度自信
第二十章 自我实现的预言
第二十一章 行为陷阱
编后记:回顾
参考文献
推荐读物
Book Abstract

2002年11月,瑞典皇家科学院宣布20Q2年诺贝尔经济学奖将授予一位经济学家和一位心理学家。这位心理学家就是美国普林斯顿大学的丹尼尔·卡尼曼教授。在谈到卡尼曼教授的贡献时,诺贝尔奖评审委员会特别指出,卡尼曼教授成功地将人类决策和判断的心理学研究成果带到了经济科学的研究当中,为现代经济学理论和研究方法注入了新的见解,其贡献是卓著的,也是独特的。
人类的生活充满了判断和决策。从衣食的偏好到学校的选择,从个人职业的规划到国家政策的制定,人类的判断和决策是其中最常见的心理活动,也是具有决定作用的影响因素。这就不难理解,为什么有那么多优秀的心理学家,不管是来自社会心理学、认知心理学、发展心理学,还是来自文化心理学、教育心理学、工业心理学,都纷纷涉足这一领域;也就不难理解,为什么有那么多的社会和人文学科,不管是经济学、管理学、法学,还是政治学、历史学、哲学,无不从人类决策与判断的心理学研究中汲取知识和灵感。这也就是为什么诺贝尔经济学奖会超越常规地在1978年和2002年两次授予研究人类决策与判断的心理学家的原因。两次获奖的心理学家,一位是赫伯特·西蒙教授,另一位就是丹尼尔·卡尼曼教授。
本书系统地介绍了赫伯特·西蒙和丹尼尔·卡尼曼的发现,同时也阐述了决策与判断心理学中很多还没有被经济学家和其他社会及人文科学家所认识到的现象和研究发现。可以说,本书80%以上的内容超出了西蒙和卡尼曼工作的领域,因此可以想像,心理学家对经济学和其他相关学科的影响还有很多值得发掘的空间。难怪美联储主席格林斯潘曾经开玩笑地说“所谓的‘新经济’实际上就是心理学”。
值得一提的是,上述两位心理学家都对中国特别友好。早在1981年,西蒙教授就接受北京大学心理学系的邀请,成为第一个在中国讲授人类决策和判断的心理学家。那时,年仅19岁的我正是心理系的本科生,一下子就被这一领域的严谨、生动和奥秘所深深吸引。西蒙的研究第一次证明决策与判断是人的思维活动,它不是建立在数学和逻辑基础之上的,而是建立在人的感情、理念和经验的基础上的。他把决策的原则定义成第一满意原则,也就是说,我们做出决策和判断的标准并不是建立在理性基础上的“最佳选择”,而是建立在人类心理上的“第一满意选择”。卡尼曼的工作就是在这一基本理论的指导下找到了那些影响我们非理性选择的因素。
我与卡尼曼教授的第一次个人接触是在1997年的夏天,那是我在柏克利做教授的第一个星期。一天,有一位慈祥的老人敲开了我办公室的门,欢迎我到柏克利来工作,并告诉我这间办公室就是他当年工作过的地方,还说他最想访问的地方就是中国。这位老人正是卡尼曼教授,而他想访问中国的愿望也终于在7年以后的2004年得以实现。今年夏天,卡尼曼作为第28届国际心理学联合会的特邀嘉宾来到北京,在开幕式上做了关于人类决策与判断心理学的主题发言,发言的最后,他表达了希望看到更多中国心理学家从事决策与判断研究工作的愿望。我觉得本书的出版和发行是对这位慈祥老人的致敬,也是对他所表达愿望的呼应。
坐在加州大学柏克利分校卡尼曼教授曾经工作过的办公室里,审阅第一本系统介绍人类决策与判断的心理学教科书的中译稿,我似乎看到了卡尼曼教授欣慰的笑容。
彭凯平
美国加州大学柏克利分校心理学教授

……

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