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Jingdong book

股市晴雨表（引进版）

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Books Motivation & Success Classics

Jingdong book

股市晴雨表（引进版）

Name: 股市晴雨表（引进版）
Brand: Jingdong book
SKU: 3110191011
Price: 19.31 USD
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Content Description

汉密尔顿在书中非常清楚地说明了隐藏在道氏理论背后的基本原则：任何人所了解、希望、相信和预期的任何事都可以在市场中得到体现；市场中包含三种趋势——日常趋势、次级趋势和基本趋势，只有基本趋势才是对长期投资者真正有用的；道氏工业和运输业平均指数的运动是分辨市场未来趋势的关键。不管怎样，道氏理论已经通过了重要的检验——时间的检验。《股市晴雨表》是初入股市、希望了解股市运行基本规律的读者的必读书，也是道氏理论爱好者的必藏之作。

Catalogue

序言
第一章周期与股市数据记录
周期与诗人
周期性
对晴雨表的需要
道氏理论
道氏理论的蕴涵
道一琼斯平均指数——行业标准
第二章电影里的华尔街
电影与情节剧
小说中的金融家
缎子大礼帽与尴尬的面部表情
昔日困境回顾
孤儿和寡妇
股票市场都适用的道氏理论
没有事实支持的论据是错误的
邪不压正
罗兹与摩根
并非难以描绘
不可改变
三一教堂的钟声
第三章查尔斯·道和他的理论
不只是一个办报人
查尔斯·道的谨慎与他的理论
查尔斯·道错在哪里？
杰文斯记录的恐慌年份
查尔斯·道对美国危机的评论
一次失误的预测
纳尔逊出书论投机
第四章道氏理论及其在投机中的应用
投机背后的真相
一个有用的定义
成功的预测
“撤销”预言者
股价运动趋势同步
必要的知识
一篇颇具教益的评论文章
根据平均指数交易
第五章股票市场的主要趋势
平均指数本身就够用了
比任何操纵都要强大
写在牛市
基本趋势
惊人的预测
市场总是正确
不用感谢
华尔街，农场主的朋友
第六章独特的预测功能
基本趋势不可操纵
一件从融资规模上看不可能的事
什么情况下有可能做成操纵
罗杰·W.巴布森的理论
巴布森图表
股市预测
真正的晴雨表
被高估的周期
秩序是天国第一法则
第七章股市操纵与专业性交易
有待证实
当前的实例
亨利·H.罗杰斯及其批评者
投机者的推理
查尔斯·道下的明确定义
输得起的人
输不起的交易者
拒绝与杰伊·古尔德合伙
聪明的交易者
锅炉仪表上的刻度盘
第八章股票市场结构
交易者与冒险者
人言可畏
场内交易员与市场价差
“对敲”
得到满足的老客户
无需或者不必道歉
职业交易员的有限影响
卖空既必需又有用
上市规定条件的保护作用
联邦政府的介入
真正的内部改革
第九章晴雨表中的“水分”
掺水劳动
如何挤掉水分
股票收益与所得税
高度分散的股权
“价值评估”和市场价格
股票掺水迷信
根据价值买进
拉塞尔·塞奇的故事
股票价值与平均指数
谨慎、正确的预测
牛市得到了证实
理论证明
第十章“海面上浮现出一朵小小的云彩，就如手掌般大”：1906年
旧金山地震
还是称火灾为好
对股票市场的影响
困难条件下做出的合理预测
灾难的严重性
牛市中的下跌反弹
基于平均指数的推断始终正确
熊市初露端倪
繁荣时期与晴雨表“失灵”
熊市的影响因素
反常的货币市场
并不比手掌大
致命的政治干预
第十一章无可挑剔的周期
我们自己的适中周期
周期理论的基础
年份不相匹配
途中丢失
作用力与反作用力相等吗？
我们需要的商业病理学
联邦储备体系的保障作用
教会老师
这条物理定律适用吗？
无法估计的波动幅度和持续时间
虚假的神秘
信息贩子与内部人
值得信赖的指南
第十二章预测牛市：以1908～1909年的牛市为例
不代表个人观点的社论
如何发现熊市的底部
自动调整的晴雨表
预言太快成真
令人鼓舞的预测
崩盘回顾
一轮得到确认的牛市
拒不接受“无聊”的复苏
成交量的相关性
不偏不倚
一次非常失败的预测
平均指数必须相互验证
言归正传
第十三章次级趋势的性质和用途
如何识别转折点
流星多于恒星
行家里手的优势
专业人士有高低之分
华尔街通常看多
詹姆斯·R.基恩
爱迪生·柯马克
大宗商品卖空
股市晴雨表如何自我调整
并非好得不像真的
……
第十四章1909年与一些历史性缺陷
第十五章“曲线”与实例：1914年
第十六章可反证规律的例外
第十七章最有力的证明：1917年
第十八章管制对铁路公司的影响
第十九章操纵行为研究：1900～1901年
第二十章若干结论：1910～1914年
第二十一章一如既往：1922～1925年
第二十二章关于投机的若干想法
附录

Book Abstract

《股市晴雨表（引进版）》：
投机者的推理
有人抱怨，专业人士具有不公平的优势。其实，这是毫无根据的。像杰西·利维摩尔（Jess Livermore）这样的专业人士，他们的推理也采用本书这一章和前面几章所介绍的推理过程，只不过有一般状况研究的支持。1921年10月3日，利维摩尔说他一直在买进股票。出于礼貌，我们姑且相信他的这番主动表白。显然，他说这番话是想试探投资大众和投机者们对于他所能预见的将来在想些什么。
这样做算不上操纵。这些投机者没有制造任何虚假的市场或者从事欺骗活动诱骗投资大众中招，他们的行为就相当于在游乐场外招徕观众的杂耍。10月3日，《巴伦周刊》援引杰西—利维摩尔的话说：“股票市场的走势都是建立在逻辑推理上的。除非能够预见到未来可能发生的事，就算这样，投机成功的能力也是有限的。投机也是正经生意，投机不能靠猜测，也不能孤注一掷。投机是一种艰辛的工作，需要付出大量的努力。”
查尔斯·道下的明确定义
下面，我们拿杰西·利维摩尔说的话与查尔斯·H.道以前在《华尔街日报》上说过的话进行比较。查尔斯·道在1901年7月20日的评论文章中说道：
“股市并不是风中摇摆不定的气球。总体而言，股市代表着一些卓有远见、信息灵通人士经过深思熟虑而做出的认真努力。他们做出这样的努力，是为了根据业已存在的价值或者预期不太遥远的将来可能会存在的价值对股价进行调整。卓越的操盘手并不在乎股价是否立刻会上涨，而是关心投资者和投机者们在未来6个月里是否会按照比现价高出10～20点的价格买进他们‘建议’买进的股票”。
……

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