{{sellerTotalView > 1 ? __("sellers", {number: sellerTotalView}) : __("seller", {number: sellerTotalView}) }}, {{numTotalView > 1 ? __("items", {number: numTotalView}) : __("item", {number: numTotalView}) }}
free FREE

Change Your Zip Code

Inventory information and delivery speeds may vary for different locations.

Location History

{{email ? __('Got it!') : __('Restock Alert')}}

We will notify you by email when the item back in stock.

Cancel
Yami

Jingdong book

增长的极限

{{buttonTypePin == 3 ? __("Scan to view more PinGo") : __("Scan to start")}}

增长的极限

{{__(":people-members", {'people': item.limit_people_count})}} {{ itemCurrency }}{{ item.valid_price }} {{ itemCurrency }}{{ item.invalid_price }} {{ itemDiscount }}
Ends in
{{ itemCurrency }}{{ item.valid_price }}
{{ itemCurrency }}{{ priceFormat(item.valid_price / item.bundle_specification) }}/{{ item.unit }}
{{ itemDiscount }}
{{ itemCurrency }}{{ item.valid_price }} {{ itemCurrency }}{{ priceFormat(item.valid_price / item.bundle_specification) }}/{{ item.unit }} {{ itemCurrency }}{{ item.invalid_price }} {{itemDiscount}}
{{ itemCurrency }}{{ item.valid_price }}
Sale ends in
Sale will starts after Sale ends in
{{ getSeckillDesc(item.seckill_data) }}
{{ __( "Pay with Gift Card to get sale price: :itemCurrency:price", { 'itemCurrency' : itemCurrency, 'price' : (item.giftcard_price ? priceFormat(item.giftcard_price) : '0.00') } ) }} ({{ itemCurrency }}{{ priceFormat(item.giftcard_price / item.bundle_specification) }}/{{ item.unit }}) Details
Best before

Currently unavailable.

We don't know when or if this item will be back in stock.

Unavailable in your area.
Sold Out

Details

Full product details
Editer Recommend

30年全球经典
系统思考典范
我们世界观中最重要的部分,也是与大众最不一样的地方,就是我们的系统观念。
我们所受的训练教我们把世界视为一组展开的行为模式,如增长、衰退、波动、过冲。它教我们不要过多关注单个事物,而应当关注事物之间的联系。
系统观绝不是我们观察世界的有用的方法,但我们发现它是信息特别丰富的一种方法。它使我们用新的方法来处理问题并发现预想不到的选项。我们有意在这里分享系统观的一些观点,这样你就可以看到我们所看到的东西,并且就这个世界的现状和未来选择得出你自己的结论。

海报:


更多精彩,点击进入品牌店查阅
>>

Content Description

《增长的极限》这本最初写于1972年的经典之作,曾因论点“冒天下之大不韪”而引起激烈争议。但是几十年过去了,本书一版再版,人们也逐渐认识到其价值,低碳经济、生态足迹正在走入人们的生活。
在历经三次改版后,本书更大的价值也正为人们所接受,即增长应被视为广泛的,并不局限于地球和经济,我们自身的心智、所从事的各类活动,如投资等,无不有此追求。而这些行为模式也有其可能的极限和过冲。至此,《增长的极限》再次成为挑战现有思维模式和行为模式的必读之书,是系统思考方面的典范之作。
所有对未来、人类行为、思维方式保持开放心态的读者,都不可错过这本经典佳作。
Author Description

德内拉·梅多斯(Donella Meadows),系统思考大师之一,也是 “学习型组织之父”、《第五项修炼》作者彼得·圣吉的老师。
著有畅销书《增长的极限》、系统思考入门读物《系统之美》。1996年创立了可持续性发展协会。
2001年辞世,生前是达特茅斯学院副教授、系统分析师。

乔根·兰德斯(Jorgen Randers),挪威管理学院名誉院长。

丹尼斯·梅多斯(Dennis Meadows),新罕布什尔大学系统管理学教授、社会科学与政策研究所的所长。

Comments

★希望大家通过阅读本书达到两个目的:更加深入地认识我们每个人、每个企业所处的这个地球系统,践行和谐可持续发展;第二,举一反三,学会系统思考,应对工作与生活中无时不有、无处不在的复杂性挑战,做出睿智决策。
——邱昭良

Catalogue

推荐序
译者序
献词
前言
第1章过冲

第2章驱动力:指数型增长
指数型增长的数学原理
呈指数型增长的事物
世界人口增长
世界工业增长
人越多越穷,越穷人越多

第3章极限:源与汇
可再生资源
不可再生资源
污染物和废弃物的汇
超越极限
靠资本而不是收入来生活

第4章World3模型:有限世界的增长动态
World3模型的目的与结构
极限与无极限
极限与时滞
过冲与振荡
过冲与崩溃
World3模型:两个可能的场景
为什么会发生过冲与崩溃

第5章从超载极限中返回:臭氧的故事
增长
极限
初始征兆
时滞
过冲:臭氧洞
下一步反应:行动的滞后
适应没有CFC的生活
故事的寓意

第6章技术、市场与过冲
“现实世界”中的技术与市场
在World3模型中用技术来扩展极限
一些未考虑进来的因素
为什么单有技术和市场仍无法避免过冲
市场不完全的一个例子:石油市场的振荡
技术、市场和渔业的破坏
总结

第7章向可持续系统过渡
对增长有意加以约束
约束增长并提升技术水平
20年的差异
多高是太高了
可持续社会
第8章向可持续状态过渡的工具
前两次革命:农业革命和工业革命
下一次革命:可持续发展
想象
网络
说真话
学习

附录A从World3模型到World3-03模型的变化
附录B人类福利指数和人类生态足迹
Book Abstract

如果为了减少气候变化和减缓石油枯竭,世界号召天然气承担现今由煤炭和石油肩负的能源负荷,那么增长率就要快于每年2.8%。如果增长率为每年5%,那么“260年的供给”将会在54年内耗尽。
显示为了允许天然气消费以每年2.8%的稳定速率增长需要增加多少探明储量。通过指数型增长的数学算法,可以得出需要探明并开采的储量将每隔25年翻一番。
问题的关键不在于世界就要耗尽天然气资源。剩余的相当可观的资源从根本上说将作为走向更加可持续能源源泉的过渡燃料。问题的关键在于矿物燃料是如此令人吃惊的有限,特别是当以指数型增长方式来加以使用时,而且它们不应该被浪费。在人类历史的时间段里,矿物燃料时代将只是过眼云烟。
由于有对矿物燃料的可再生替代品,因而全球能源短缺并不是必然的。有两种可获得的能源选择从源泉、环境保护、技术可行性以及日益增长的经济性来看都是可持续的。其中之一,就是更高的效率,可以迅速得以实施。另外一种,即基于太阳能的可再生资源,将需要更长一点的时间付诸实践。一些人可能会认为原子能属于世界能源问题潜在解决方案。我们并不这么认为,因为它未解决废料的处理问题,也因为另外两种方案更加可行。它们更迅速,成本更低廉、更安全以及更容易在贫困国家推广。
能源效率意味着可以使用更少的能源来提供同样的终端服务——光、电和冷藏室、客运与货运、抽水、驱动发动机等。它意味着同样或者更好的物质生活质量,通常以更小的成本实现——不仅更少直接能源成本,而且更少污染、更少对于国内能源的提取、更少工程选址的冲突,以及对于许多国家而言,更少的外债和更低的军事成本去维护对外国资源的获取或控制。
Introduction

背景
您现在读到的是本书第3版。第1版是1972年面世的。1992年出版了修订版,在该书中我们讨论了第1版面世后第一个20年的全球发展情况。本版包括了我们早先分析的核心部分并总结了我们在过去这30年中所得到的一些相关数据和观点。
本书源自1970~1972年麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院系统动力学小组的研究项目。这个项目组使用系统动力学原理和计算机模型对世界人口和实物经济增长的原因及其导致的后果进行了分析。我们提出了这样一些问题:目前的政策将导致一个可持续的未来还是走向崩溃?该怎么做才能创造一个能为所有人提供充足所需的人类经济?
我们受罗马俱乐部(一个由著名商人、政治家和科学家组成的非正式的国际团体)的委托来考察这些问题。德国的大众基金会为我们的工作提供了资助。
当时执教于麻省理工学院的丹尼斯·梅多斯组织并领导由以下人员组成的项目组花两年的时间完成了最初的研究工作:
Alison A. Anderson博士(美国),Erich K.O. Zahn博士(德国),Ilyas Bayar(土耳其),Jay M. Anderson博士(美国),Farhad Hakimzadeh(伊朗),William W. Behrens III博士(美国),Judith A. Machen(美国),Steffen Harbordt博士(德国),Donella H. Meadows博士(美国),Peter Milling博士(美国),Nirmala S. Murthy(印度),Roger F. Naill博士(美国),Jorgen Randers博士(挪威),Stephen Schantzis(美国),John A. Seeger博士(美国),Marilyn Williams(美国)。
该研究项目的最主要基础是我们建立的World3计算机模型,它能帮助我们将与增长有关的数据和理论整合起来。借助这个模型我们可以得出内在逻辑一致的世界发展情形。在第1版中,我们公布并分析了从World3模型中得出的12种模拟场景,这些模拟场景显示了1900~2100年这200年间世界发展的各种不同的可能模式。在第2版中给出了根据一个稍作更新的World3模型版本得出的14种模拟场景。
本书在许多国家成为最畅销的书之一,最终被翻译成30多种语言。第2版也以多种语言出版并被广泛采用为大学教材。
1972年:增长的极限(第1版)
本书报告,全球生态约束(与资源使用和废弃物排放有关)将对21世纪的全球发展产生重要影响。本书发出警告,人类将不得不付出更多的资本和人力去打破这些约束,这些约束是如此之多以至于我们的平均生活质量将在21世纪的某些时候出现下降。该书并没有具体指出何种资源枯竭或何种废弃物排放会因治理所需资本超出所能得到的资本而导致增长停止。这是因为,我们不可能在一个科学的基础上对组成这个世界的庞大、复杂的人口–经济–环境系统做出这种很具体的预测。
本书呼吁,通过技术、文化和制度上重大、前瞻和社会性的创新来避免人类生态足迹的增加超出地球的承载能力。尽管全球性挑战使得前景暗淡,但本书的基调是乐观的,一遍又一遍地反复强调,如果早点采取行动,我们将在多大程度上减少因逼近(或超出)地球生态极限所造成的危害。
在本书中,World3模型所给出的12种模拟场景描绘了人口增长和自然资源使用增加是如何在各种限制下相互作用的。在现实中,增长的极限表现为很多种形式。在我们的分析中,主要是关注地球的物理极限,表现为日趋枯竭的自然资源和地球有限的吸收工业和农业废弃物排放的能力。在World3对现实的每一个模拟场景中,我们都发现这些限制将迫使实物增长在21世纪的某个时间停止。
我们的分析没有去预测那些某一天会突然出现的极限。在我们给出的模拟场景中,人口和物质资本的扩张会逐渐迫使人类拿出越来越多的资本去应对那些由一系列约束产生的问题。最终,由于太多的资本被用于解决这些问题而不足以支撑工业产出的持续增长。当工业出现下降时,社会也就无法支撑其他经济部门的更多产出:粮食、服务和其他消费。当这些部门都不再增长时,人口增长也将终结。
增长的终结也会以很多种方式出现。它可能以一种崩溃的方式发生:人口和人类福利不可控制地下降。World3模型给出的模拟场景描述了由各种原因所导致的崩溃。增长的终结也可能以一种人类足迹逐渐适应地球承载能力的方式出现。通过对当前政策做出重大调整,我们可以使World3模型产生出一种增长有序终结而人类福利将长期保持在较高水平的场景。

Specifications

Brand Jingdong book
Brand Origin China

Disclaimer

Product packaging, specifications and price are subject to change without notice. All information about the products on our website is provided for information purposes only. Please always read labels, warnings and directions provided with the product before use.

View Full Terms of Use
Add to favorites
{{ $isZh ? coupon.coupon_name_sub : coupon.coupon_ename_sub | formatCurrency }}
{{__("Buy Directly")}} {{ itemCurrency }}{{ item.directly_price }}
Quantity
{{ quantity }}
{{ instockMsg }}
{{ limitText }}
{{buttonTypePin == 3 ? __("Scan to view more PinGo") : __("Scan to start")}}
Sold by JD@CHINA
Ship to
{{ __("Ship to United States only") }}
Free shipping over 69
Genuine guarantee

Added to Cart

Keep Shopping

More to Consider

{{ item.brand_name }}

{{ item.item_name }}

{{ item.currency }}{{ item.market_price }}

{{ item.currency }}{{ item.unit_price }}

{{ item.currency }}{{ item.unit_price }}

Coupons

{{ coupon.coupon_name_new | formatCurrency }}
Clip Clipped Over
{{ getCouponDescStr(coupon) }}
{{ coupon.use_time_desc }}
Expires soon {{ formatTime(coupon.use_end_time) }}

Share this item with friends

Cancel

Yami Gift Card

Get this exclusive deal when paying with gift card

Terms and Conditions

Gift card deals are special offers for selected products;

The gift card deals will automatically be activated if a customer uses gift card balance at check out and the balance is sufficient to pay for the total price of the shopping cart products with gift card deals;

You will not be able to activate the gift card deals if you choose other payment methods besides gift card. The products will be purchased at their normal prices;

If your account balance is not enough to pay for the products with gift card deals, you can choose to reload your gift card balance by clicking on the Reload button at either shopping cart page or check out page;

Products that have gift card deals can be recognized by a special symbol showing 'GC Deal';

For any additional questions or concerns, please contact our customer service;

Yamibuy reserves the right of final interpretation.

Sold by Yami

Service Guarantee

Yami Free Shipping over $49
Yami Easy Returns
Yami Ships from United States

Shipping

  • United States

    Standard Shipping is $5.99 (Excluding Alaska & Hawaii). Free on orders of $49 or more.

    Local Express is $5.99 (Available in Parts of CA, NJ, MA & PA). Free on orders of $49 or more.

    2-Day Express (Includes Alaska & Hawaii) starts at $19.99.

Return Policy

Yami is committed to provide our customers with a peace of mind when purchasing from us. Most items shipped from Yamibuy.com can be returned within 30 days of receipt of shipment (For Food, Beverages, Snacks, Dry Goods, Health supplements, Fresh Grocery and Perishables Goods, within 7 days of receipt of shipment due to damages or quality issues; To ensure that every customer receives safe and high-quality products, we do not provide refunds or returns for beauty products once they have been opened or used, except in the case of quality issues; Some products may have different policies or requirements associated with them, please see below for products under special categories, or contact Yami Customer Service for further assistance).
Thank you for your understanding and support.

Learn More

Sold by Yami

Terms and Conditions of Yami E-Gift Card

If you choose “Redeem automatically” as your delivery method, your gift card balance will be reload automatically after your order has been processed successfully;

If you choose “Send to Email”as your delivery method, the card number and CVV will be sent to the email address automatically;

Any user can use the card number and CVV to redeem the gift card, please keep your gift card information safely. If you have any trouble receiving email, please contact Yami customer service;

Yami gift card can be used to purchase both Yami owned or Marketplace products;

Yami gift card will never expire;

Yami gift card balance does not have to be used up at once;

All rights reserved by Yami.

Return Policy

Gift card that has already been consumed is non-refundable.

Sold by JD@CHINA

Service Guarantee

Yami Free Shipping over $49
Yami Easy Returns
Yami Ships from United States

Shipping

  • United States

    Standard Shipping is $5.99 (Excluding Alaska & Hawaii). Free on orders of $49 or more.

    Local Express is $5.99 (Available in Parts of CA, NJ, MA & PA). Free on orders of $49 or more.

    2-Day Express (Includes Alaska & Hawaii) starts at $19.99.

Return Policy

You may return product within 30 days upon receiving the product. Items returned must be new in it's original packing, including the original invoice for the purchase. Customer return product at their own expense.

Sold by JD@CHINA

Service Guarantee

Yami Cross-store Free Shipping over $69
Yami 30-days Return

Yami-China FC

Yami has a consolidation warehouse in China which collects multiple sellers’ packages and combines to one order. Our Yami consolidation warehouse will directly ship the packages to your door. Cross-store free shipping over $69.

Return Policy

You may return products within 30 days upon receiving the products. Sellers take responsibilities for any wrong shipment or missing items. Packing needs to be unopened for any other than quality issues return. We promise to pack carefully, but because goods are taking long journey to destinations, simple damages to packaging may occur. Any damages not causing internal goods quality problems are not allowed to return. If you open the package and any quality problem is found, please contact customer service within three days after receipt of goods.

Shipping Information

Yami Consolidation Service Shipping Fee $9.99(Free shipping over $69)

Sellers in China will ship their orders within 1-2 business days once the order is placed. Packages are sent to our consolidation warehouse in China and combined there. Our Yami consolidation warehouse will directly ship the packages to you via UPS. The average time for UPS to ship from China to the United States is about 10 working days and it can be traced using the tracking number. Due to the pandemic, the delivery time may be delayed by about 5 days. The package needs to be signed by the guest. If the receipt is not signed, the customer shall bear the risk of loss of the package.

Sold by JD@CHINA

Service Guarantee

Free shipping over 69
Genuine guarantee

Shipping

Yami Consolidated Shipping $9.99(Free shipping over $69)


Seller will ship the orders within 1-2 business days. The logistics time limit is expected to be 7-15 working days. In case of customs clearance, the delivery time will be extended by 3-7 days. The final receipt date is subject to the information of the postal company.

Yami Points information

All items are excluding from any promotion or points events on Yamibuy.com

Return Policy

You may return product within 30 days upon receiving the product. Items returned must be new in it's original packing, including the original invoice for the purchase. Customer return product at their own expense.

Yami

Download the Yami App

Back Top

Recommended for You

About the brand

Jingdong book

为您推荐

Yami
欣葉
2种选择
欣叶 御大福 芋头麻薯 180g

周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折
Yami
欣葉
2种选择
欣叶 御大福 芋头麻薯 180g

周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折
Yami
欣葉
2种选择
欣叶 御大福 芋头麻薯 180g

周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折
Yami
欣葉
2种选择
欣叶 御大福 芋头麻薯 180g

周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折
Yami
欣葉
2种选择
欣叶 御大福 芋头麻薯 180g

周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折
Yami
欣葉
2种选择
欣叶 御大福 芋头麻薯 180g

周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折

Reviews{{'('+ commentList.posts_count + ')'}}

Have your say. Be the first to help other guests.

Write a review
{{ totalRating }} Write a review
  • {{i}} star

    {{i}} stars

    {{ parseInt(commentRatingList[i]) }}%

Yami Yami
{{ comment.user_name }}

{{ showTranslate(comment) }}Show Less

{{ strLimit(comment,800) }}Show more

Show Original

{{ comment.content }}

Yami
Show All

{{ formatTime(comment.in_dtm) }} VERIFIED PURCHASE {{groupData}}

{{ comment.likes_count }} {{ comment.likes_count }} {{ comment.reply_count }} {{comment.in_user==uid ? __('Delete') : __('Report')}}
Yami Yami
{{ comment.user_name }}

{{ showTranslate(comment) }}Show Less

{{ strLimit(comment,800) }}Show more

Show Original

{{ comment.content }}

Yami
Show All

{{ formatTime(comment.in_dtm) }} VERIFIED PURCHASE {{groupData}}

{{ comment.likes_count }} {{ comment.likes_count }} {{ comment.reply_count }} {{comment.in_user==uid ? __('Delete') : __('Report')}}

No related comment~

Review

Yami Yami

{{ showTranslate(commentDetails) }}Show Less

{{ strLimit(commentDetails,800) }}Show more

Show Original

{{ commentDetails.content }}

Yami
Show All

{{ formatTime(commentDetails.in_dtm) }} VERIFIED PURCHASE {{groupData}}

{{ commentDetails.likes_count }} {{ commentDetails.likes_count }} {{ commentDetails.reply_count }} {{commentDetails.in_user==uid ? __('Delete') : __('Report')}}

Please write at least one word

Comments{{'(' + replyList.length + ')'}}

Yami Yami

{{ showTranslate(reply) }}Show Less

{{ strLimit(reply,800) }}Show more

Show Original

{{ reply.reply_content }}

{{ formatTime(reply.reply_in_dtm) }}

{{ reply.reply_likes_count }} {{ reply.reply_likes_count }} {{ reply.reply_reply_count }} {{reply.reply_in_user==uid ? __('Delete') : __('Report')}}

Please write at least one word

Cancel

That’s all the comments so far!

Write a review
How would you rate this item?

Please add your comment.

  • A nice nickname will make your comments more popular!
  • The nickname in your account will be changed to the same as here.
Thanks for your review
Our community rely on great reviews like yours to find the best of Asia.

Report

If you find this content inappropriate and think it should be removed from the Yami.com site, let us know please.

Cancel

Are you sure to delete your review?

Cancel

You’ve Recently Viewed

About the brand

Jingdong book