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非理性繁荣(第三版)

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“非理性繁荣”一经提出,就几乎成了金融市场波动的心理根源的代名词。即便罗伯特?J?希勒再三警告,投资者之间表现出的非理性繁荣迹象,自2008-2009年金融危机以来仍有增无减。

《非理性繁荣》(第三版)探讨了跨越百年历史长河的西方金融市场波动规律,基于对股票、债券、房地产市场的回顾,诊断了危机产生的结构、文化及心理根源。

本书已被译成中日韩法德俄意土希等16种文字,在全球发行,影响遍及全世界。中文版累积销量也超过100000册。

同为诺贝尔经济学奖得主的保罗?克鲁格曼盛赞“罗伯特?希勒教授在揭示金融市场非理性方面,做得比同时代的其他任何经济学家都好。”

而史蒂夫?H?汉克则在《福布斯》撰文指出,“这是一部杰出的著作”。

《经济学人》杂志则说“《非理性繁荣》对于每个对华尔街感兴趣,或者财务上和华尔街相关的人,都是一本必读的书。目前为止,几乎每个美国人都需要读这本书。”

如果你也对投资感兴趣,建议读一读本书。


Content Description

这本书是《纽约时报》畅销书《非理性繁荣》的*新修订版。罗伯特?J?希勒教授(Robert J. Shiller)在书中警告说:投资者之间表现出的非理性繁荣迹象,自2008—2009年金融危机以来有增无减。他曾经在第一版和第二版中对技术泡沫和房地产泡沫做出警示,认为心理因素驱使下的波动性是所有资产市场的固有特性。随着美国股票和债券价格的高涨,以及很多国家房地产价格的飙升,“后次贷繁荣”(Post Subprime Boom)很可能变成验证希勒教授这一具有影响力论断的又一个例子。
《非理性繁荣》远不止对市场现状的描述,它还进一步解释了驱使所有市场上下波动的力量。它说明了投资者的兴奋感如何推动资产价格上涨到一个令人晕眩且不可持续的高度,以及在其他时候,投资者的沮丧感又如何迫使价格下跌至令人恐慌的低谷。
之前的版本众所周知地预测了股票市场和房地产市场的崩盘。第三版扩充到了债券市场,所以本书现在涵盖了所有主要的投资市场。新版本也包括了*新的数据以及希勒2013年诺贝尔奖演讲稿。
除了诊断资产泡沫的成因,《非理性繁荣》还提出紧急政策应对的建议来减少泡沫的可能性和严重性,同时也提出了在下一次泡沫破裂前降低个人风险的应对办法。关注股票、房地产和债券市场投资的人一定要阅读这本书。
Author Description

罗伯特?J?希勒(Robert J. Shiller),2013年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者,耶鲁大学经济系教授,畅销书作家,《纽约时报》经济学视角专栏的定期撰稿人。他的著作有《金融与好的社会》、《动物精神》(与乔治?阿克洛夫合著)、《次贷解决方案》和《金融新秩序》(均由普林斯顿大学出版社出版),现居住在康涅狄格州纽黑文市。
Catalogue

第1章 股票市场的历史回顾 001
市盈率 008
其他高市盈率时期 010
对非理性繁荣的忧虑 012
第2章 债券市场的历史回顾 017
利率和CAPE(周期性调整市盈率) 020
通货膨胀和利率 021
实际利率 023
第3章 房地产市场的历史回顾 029
住房价格的历史长期走势 032
实际住房价格总体并未呈现长期上行趋势 041
实际住房价格没有强劲上升的原因 045
非理性繁荣的昨与今 048
贷款机构在房地产泡沫中扮演的角色 050
后文的研究路径 052
第一篇 结构因素
第4章 诱发因素:互联网、市场经济疾速发展以及其他事件 061
诱发1982—2000年千禧繁荣的12个因素 065
诱发2003—2007年次贷繁荣的因素 086
诱发2009年后股市和房地产市场繁荣的因素 089
小 结 096
第5章 放大机制:自然形成的蓬齐过程 107
投资者信心的变化 108
对投资者信心的思考 113
关于预期的调查证据 117
对投资者预期和情绪的反思 119
公众对市场的关注 121
泡沫的反馈理论 124
投资者对反馈和泡沫的感知 128
蓬齐骗局:一种特殊的反馈模式和投机性泡沫 130
欺骗、操纵和善意的谎言 133
投机性泡沫的内在蓬齐本质 135
股票市场与房地产市场中的反馈与交叉反馈 136
非理性繁荣和反馈环:迄今为止的争议 139
第二篇 文化因素
第6章 新闻媒体 147
媒体在股市变化中发挥的铺垫作用 149
争议话题的媒体培养助推 151
对市场前景的报道 152
超载的纪录 153
重大新闻真会伴随着重大的股价变化吗 153
新闻的尾随效应 154
重大价格变化日新闻报道缺失 156
新闻是注意力连锁反应的诱因 157
1929年股市崩盘时的新闻 159
1987年股市崩盘时的新闻 164
全球媒体文化 170
新闻媒体在宣传投机性泡沫中所起的作用 171
第7章 新时代的经济思想 177
1901年的乐观主义:20世纪的顶峰 182
20世纪20年代的乐观主义 186
20世纪50年代和60年代的新时代思想 190
20世纪90年代牛市中的新时代思想 194
房地产市场繁荣中的新时代思想 197
新时代的终结 202
第8章 新时代与全球泡沫 215
近期内最重大的股市事件 217
与最大的价格变动相关的事件 220
新时代的终结和金融危机 226
上涨(下跌)的通常会下跌(上涨) 228
第三篇 心理因素
第9章 股市的心理锚定 235
股市的数量锚 238
股市的道德锚 239
过度自信和直觉判断 242
锚的脆弱性:提前考虑不确定的未来决策的困难 245
第10章 从众行为和思想传染 251
社会影响与信息 253
从众行为和信息瀑布相关的经济理论 256
人类信息处理与口头传播 257
面对面交流和媒体传播 258
用于口头传播方式的传播模型 261
人们心中矛盾观点的汇集 267
基于社会的注意力变化 268
人们无法对注意力变化做出解释 270
总 结 271
第四篇 理性繁荣的尝试
第11章 有效市场、随机游走和泡沫 277
有效市场和价格随机游走的基本论证 279
关于“聪明钱”的思考 281
“明显”错误定价的例子 283
卖空限制和“明显”错误定价的持续 285
错误定价的统计证据 286
盈余变化和价格变化 287
市盈率和随后长期收益之间的历史联系 289
用于预测超额收益(股票超出债券)的利率 292
股息变动和价格变动 292
过度波动和总体情况 293
第12章 投资者学习和忘却 307
对风险的“学习” 309
“股票优于债券理论”在投资文化中的角色 313
关于共同基金、分散化投资以及长期持有的学习 314
学习和忘却 317
第五篇 采取行动
第13章 自由市场中的投机波动 323
货币当局应运用温和的货币政策来抑制泡沫 329
意见领袖应发表有利于市场稳定的言论 330
制度应鼓励建设性的交易 331
公众应该得到更多的对冲风险帮助 334
储蓄和退休计划的政策应该现实考虑泡沫的存在 336
总结:拟定良策应对投机性波动 338
附 录 诺贝尔奖演讲:投机性资产价格 341
价格波动、理性预期和泡沫 344
期望现值模型与过度波动 348
行为金融学和行为经济学 368
对金融创新的启示 373
致谢 380
参考文献 381

图表目录
图1.1 1871—2014年股价与收益率图 005
图1.2 1995年1月至2014年7月十国股价及全球整体股价走势 007
图1.3 1881—2014年周期性调整市盈率(CAPE)与利率曲线图 009
图2.1 1871—2014年美国长期利率与通货膨胀率 022
图2.2 1985—2014年四个国家的通胀指数化债券收益率 025
图3.1 美国住房价格、建筑成本、人口和利率,1890—2014年 033
图3.2 1983—2014年样本城市住房价格季度数据 039
图3.3 1983—2014年世界七城市住房价格以及全球整体价格季度数据 040
图5.1 认为股票是最佳投资方式的受访者比例,1996—2014年 109
图5.2 认为房地产是最佳投资方式的受访者比例,2003—2013年 110
图5.3 受访者对于股市危机后果的观点,1996—2014年 111
图5.4 估值信心指数,1989—2014年 129
表8.1 近期1年内涨幅最大的实际股票价格指数 218
表8.2 近期1年内跌幅最大的实际股票价格指数 219
表8.3 近期5年内涨幅最大的实际股票价格指数 220
表8.4 近期5年内跌幅最大的实际股票价格指数 221
图11.1 作为10年期收益率预测指标的周期性调整市盈率(CAPE) 289
图11.2 股票价格和股息现值,1871—2013年 295
图A.1 1871—2013年标准普尔综合股票价格指数曲线与按恒定比率折现的 股息现值曲线对照图 353
图A.2 1871—2013年标准普尔综合指数实际股票价格以及三种股息现值曲 线对照图
358 图A.3 1926—1976年49只美国个股未来股息变化现值及其股息价格比率对照图 363
图A.4 1987—2013年两种美国住房价格指数除以消费者价格指数 (CPI-U) 366

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