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Jingdong book

企业危机防范

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Books Management Strategic Management

Jingdong book

企业危机防范

Name: 企业危机防范
Brand: Jingdong book
SKU: 3102006051
Price: 42.57 USD
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一切企业突发事件发生之前都会有警告没有依据实时信息来制定决策的企业注定会遭遇各类危机的侵袭预测现在和实时机会探测是企业成功防范危机的不二法门。

Content Description

《企业危机防范》中，麦基阐述了管理者怎样识别哪一组数据是实时需要的，以便在正确的时间采取有效的应对措施，从而避免灾难，把握机会。企业管理者通常拥有诸如市场份额、销售额、顾客保留率、支出额等大量信息。尽管拥有如此之多的信息，企业却经常受到各种意外事件的困扰，如在产品投放市场时遭到冷遇以及收入的严重亏空等。在这本令人大开眼界的书中，麦基证明了问题出现的原因并不在于企业管理不善，而在于将企业的重要决策建立在过去数据基础上的错误的企业文化。
麦基通过在高德纳公司五年的专业研究，得出了这样一个结论：即使最严重的企业危机，其发生之前也是有警告的。更重要的是，他强调管理者完全有能力预见到可能发生的“意外”，并作出从容的应对。麦基的研究表明，用来解决企业危机的必要信息不超过企业可获得信息的5％。管理者们真正需要掌握的不是预测未来，而是预测现在：了解企业的一些关键部门正在发生什么事情。
麦基从最近的企业危机中引用了大量的案例，其中包括9·11事件、三英里岛事件和“挑战者”号爆炸事件等。《企业危机防范》所概括出的对于实时机会探测的可行的方法论可以帮助管理者们：
◆识别哪一条信息值得实时监控，哪一条不值得
◆捕捉和分析这些信息的变化
◆及时将变化报告给正确的人以便采取行动
◆在关键的企业流程中开展实时机会探测
◆构建一个能做到尽早地探测情况、有依据地给。
出应对措施和迅速地执行措施的买时企业：
实时信息将改造企业世界，每个管理者都有能力使它变成现实。《企业危机防范》所提供的真知灼见和操作工具能够使管理者作出真正有依据的决定，它能够消除不确定性并引领你进入到实时机会中。

Author Description

肯尼思·G．麦基（Kenneth G．MeGee）是高德纳集团副总裁兼研究员，该公司是一个专注于信息技术和创业增长研究与咨询的公司。自1989年起，麦基就在高德纳任职，现在正在一个新的领域——实时企业——开展研究。他也关注信息技术是如何影响社会、政府和经济发展的，这些影响反过来从根本上改变了企业的组织结构和管理实践。他曾经担任公司的高级分析人员，工作范围涵盖全球网络服务提供商、网络组织和网络资源外包。在加盟高德纳之前，他是伦敦所罗门兄弟（Salomon Brothers）公司国际电信部门的副总裁和主管，也曾在花旗集团北美投资银行和高盛公司（Coldman，Sachs&Co）担任过高级信息技术管理职务。

Comments

本书讨论了如何实时地消除企业经营的不确定性，发现并把握机会。麦基用他渊博的知识为企业的改进奉献了一部令人信服且切实可行的指南。
——eBay公司首席运营官梅纳德·韦布

本书是管理者的必读。他们可以从书中发现丰富的实例和创新想法，并可以将其快速地应用到瞬息万变的经营环境中；而在这种环境中，实时信息通常是成功的关键。
——英国电信公司前首席执行官彼得·邦菲尔德

我们真能规避企业风险吗？麦基解释了如何从浩如烟海的实时数据中发现线索，从而能够预测现在和探测实时机会。他向我们展现了，一个企业的业务流程如果得到了很好的整合，它将如何能够快速预见到“突发”事件并作出正确的应对。
——IBM沃森研究中心按需解决方案和自主计算部主管戴维·L．科恩

本书透彻地分析了在瞬息万变、竞争激烈的经营环境中实时信息的重要性。在正确的时间将正确的信息传递给正确的人的价值从来没有像现在这么重要过。本书对于想要在实时世界中再造组织的任何人来讲都有很强的指导意义。
——通用电气动力系统集团副总裁兼首席信息官约翰·塞拉尔

Catalogue

致谢
引言：警告总是存在
我们对公司的了解还不如对飓风的了解
悲剧为何一再上演？
教训在哪里？
这本书能为你做些什么？
识别并验证实时信息
具体内容
第一部分应对企业突发事件
第一章将经营风险转化为机会
预测现在
实时机会探测
寻找目的港
实时信息的价值
适时与实时
机会与灾难
第二章识别并验证准确的实时信息
能力具备并不意味着要面面俱到
识别并验证
第二部分现实世界的实时
第三章突发事件：缺少警告
世界通信公司
市场平均盈余预期
改变游戏
俄亥俄州保健金融公司
商业航空业
结束突发事件
第四章被怀疑事件：汇报太迟
波音公司
波音公司发生了什么？
西尔斯公司
被怀疑事件的终结
第五章被克服事件：正确处理
琥珀木家居建筑公司
威特斯欧服装零售公司
福特汽车公司
德累斯顿银行股份公司
eBay公司
小结
第三部分从实时机会探测到实时企业
第六章坚持到底：在整个企业内部实施实时机会探测
成为实时企业
步骤二：在整个企业内进行实时机会探测
步骤三：改善企业经营流程以提高组织的应对能力
警告之词
努力从应对转向探测
早期警告
通用汽车公司踏上实时企业之路
实时企业的力量
小结
第七章解决实时机会探测中的难题
新角色，新责任
要设立一个新的公司高管职位？
对CMO的深入思考
小结
第八章未来的实时世界
技术循环曲线
财务报告阶段
新流程阶段
完全整合阶段
小结
结语从现在开始
当前冲击
准备，成为实时企业
注释
作者介绍

Book Abstract

第一部分应对企业突发事件
第一章将经营风险转化为机会
预测现在
本书讲的不是预知未来，而是一个完全不同的概念——预测现在。
预测现在是精确地描述我们对周围世界的理解。这个概念背后的原理与一个分子物理学的理论相似，即海森伯格非确定论（Heisenberge Uncertainty Principle）。非确定论认为不可能在同一时间完全了解一个亚原子微粒。具体来讲，我们无法同时了解一个粒子的位置和动量，因为衡量一个变量会改变另一个变量。物理学家知道他们不能了解所研究的微粒的所有方面，我们身处的世界也是如此。我们不去收集有关遇到的各种情况的全部信息——没有那个必要。我们只需获得足够的信息，以便于对总体现状作出基于直觉的判断：预测现在！
预测现在是指从某些实际经验中获得的原始信息，分析它们，并判断其意义和影响。如果一个人白天在户外观察太阳方位来确定时间，他就是在预测现在；如果一个迷路的人仔细研究路线图，试图确定当前的位置，以便找到通往目的地的正确路径，他也是在预测现在。当一个医生为了寻找病因而让病人去做各种检查时，他是在预测现在；当一个地质学家为了勘探石油储藏而人工引发爆炸，获取地震波指数时，他还是在预测现在。上述任何一种情况下的当事人都没有关于当时情况的完整或全面的信息，他们只是拥有足够的用来对当时全部情况作出预测的实时信息。
同样的原则也适用于企业界。影响产品、市场和内部运营的变量如此之多，以致没有任何一个管理者能够掌握同一时刻一个企业所发生的一切。任何一个想要收集全部运营数据的管理者都会发现，在得到最后数据的时候，最初数据显示的情况已经与当初大相径庭。实际上，管理者不是一定要掌握所有的运营情况才能了解目前的形势。
下面是那些对于企业来讲本来不该发生的破坏性突发事件产生的主要原因。当今大多数企业管理者用来对总体现状作出直觉判断的各种信息非常过时，以致他们不是在预测现在，而是预测过去。问题的实质就相当于管理者根据上个月的交通报道来决定今天早上去办公室的最佳路线。因此，正如预测现在不是预测将来（它不回答诸如“本季度末我们的销售额能够达到什么水平？”之类的问题）一样，它也不是预测过去（“这个季度初我们的销售情况怎样？”）。预测现在是通过收集足够的信息来回答“在实现公司目标的征程中，我们目前处于什么位置？”这样的问题。
……

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Jingdong book

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