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Jingdong book

投资交易笔记：2002-2010年中国债券市场研究回眸

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Jingdong book

投资交易笔记：2002-2010年中国债券市场研究回眸

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《投资交易笔记：2002-2010年中国债券市场研究回眸》并非是从制度建设角度来讲述中国债券市场的发展，而是从一个交易员、投资者以及分析员的角度来描述那些曾经发生，而且未来一定会再度发生的事件。《投资交易笔记：2002-2010年中国债券市场研究回眸》所涉及的2002～2010年也正是笔者精力最为旺盛、求知欲最强的时期，每每望着自己这些年来积累的厚厚九本心得笔记，总觉得这是自己的一笔财富，也由此萌生了将其总结归纳，保留一份历史资料的念头，这也是写作本书的主要原因。
Author Description

董德志，上海社会科学院世界经济研究所金融学博士研究生在读，2002年进人中国银行：2003～2010年就职于中国银行全球金融市场部上海交易中心，从事人民币资金，债券产品的交易以及研究工作；2011年至今就职于上海中银万国证券研究所有限公司，从事债券研究工作。

Catalogue

第一篇 2002～2010年利率市场变化回顾
导读
第一章 2002年：强弩之末
第一节 2002年基准国债利率运行轨迹综述
第二节 2002年长期利率波动详解
第二章 2003年：利率起步回升之年
第一节 2003年基准国债利率运行轨迹综述
第二节 2003年长期利率波动详解
第三章 2004年：带有一些“非理性”意味的大崩溃
第一节 2004年基准国债利率运行轨迹综述
第二节 2004年长期利率波动详解
第四章 2005年：大牛市
第一节 2005年基准国债利率运行轨迹综述
第二节 2005年长期利率波动详解
第五章 2006年：波动市——成亦央票，败亦央票
第一节 2006年基准国债利率运行轨迹综述
第二节 2006年长期利率波动详解
第六章 2007年：通胀年，大熊市
第一节 2007年基准国债利率运行轨迹综述
第二节 2007年长期利率波动详解
第七章 2008年：峰回路转，大起大落
第一节 2008年基准国债利率运行轨迹综述
第二节 2008年长期利率波动详解
第八章 2009年：经济增长触底反弹
第一节 2009年基准国债利率运行轨迹综述
第二节 2009年长期利率波动详解
第九章 2010年：经济滞胀局面初显
第一节 2010年基准国债利率运行轨迹综述
第二节 2010年长期利率波动详解
第二篇 银行间债券市场三大基本利率关系研究
导读
第一章 公开市场操作工具利率的历史变化分析
第一节 长期利率方向与中央银行票据发行利率方向背离的1O个时期
第二节 中央银行在公开市场操作中的态度不尽相同
第三节 中央银行票据发行利率与交易利率的关系分析
第四节 中央银行票据发行过程中的量价关系
第五节 3年期中央银行票据的发行历史回顾
第六节 影响中央银行票据发行利率变化的政策立足点
第二章 银行间市场回购利率的历史变化回顾
第一节 7天回购利率与资金成本的历史变化回顾
第二节 回购利率与资金数量的关系
第三篇 经济基本面
导读
第一章 宏观经济基本面指标——通货膨胀
第一节 各种价格类指标简介
第二节 CPI指数详细分析
第三节 如何理解各价格指数之间的传导关系
第二章 宏观经济基本面指标——经济增长
第一节 贸易类经济指标介绍
第二节 固定资产投资类经济指标介绍
第三节 消费类经济指标——社会消费品零售总额介绍
第四节 GDP与传统“三驾马车”的关系
第五节 一个更为及时、综合的经济增长类指标——工业增加值
第三章 各类经济增长指标的领先与滞后性
第四篇 货币分析
导读
第一章 中央银行资金报表分析
第一节 基础货币分析
第二节 广义货币供应量分析
第三节 货币乘数分析
第四节 对货币政策宽松度衡量标准的探讨
第二章 商业银行资金报表分析
第五篇 政策与策略
导读
第一章 利率曲线的倾斜度变化一览
第一节 2002～2004年长短期利率变化形态一览
第二节 2005～2006年长短期利率变化形态一览
第三节 2007～2008年长短期利率变化形态一览
第四节 2009～2010年长短期利率变化形态一览
第二章 固定利率债券与浮动利率债券比价分析
第三章 短期品种所蕴涵的利率曲线变化预期
第一节 1年期和2年期品种的利差变化
第二节 2年期短期利率的分析
第三节 对3年期品种的远期利率分析要考虑利率曲线斜度变化的因素
第四章 股票市场与债券市场变化的互验互证
第一节 逆用美林投资时钟的结论，借助于权益类资产的分类
表现来判断目前宏观经济组合状态
第二节 从长期趋势性来看，股票市场PE与长期债券利率具有较强的正相关性
第五章 从国际因素来理解长期利率变化
第一节 美元变化和国内长期利率的关系
第二节 美元的变化与国内股票市场的相关性相对较弱
第六章 10年期国债利率的技术分析指标
第七章 商业银行债券投资与信贷配置的关系
第八章 货币政策与财政政策的不同搭配对于债券市场的影响
第一节 财政政策与货币政策的不同搭配对市场利率的理论影响
第二节 货币政策和财政政策的松紧搭配对市场利率的实际影响
第三节 货币政策和信贷政策的不同搭配对市场利率的影响
第四节 综合回顾
第五节 带有行政色彩的政策调控行为——阶段性的价格管制措施
第六节 2002～2010年历次法定存贷款利率变化对债券市场影响一览
第六篇 随笔漫谈
第一章 谈谈分析框架的化繁为简
第二章 谈谈投资行为与交易行为的差异
第一节 两类账户的成本不同
第二节 两类账户的考核要求不同
第三节 两类行为的分析逻辑有所差异
第三章 论左侧操作和右侧操作
第四章 谈谈政策面因素对债券市场的影响
第五章 谈谈市场研究与分析的作用
参考文献

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