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新型大国经济关系的生长:1978-2015中美经济外交

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新型大国经济关系的生长:1978-2015中美经济外交

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不必忌言责任,更无需忌讳战争。一个经济力量上相对崛起的中国和经济力量上相对衰落的美国正在重构世界。
Author Description

罗小军,复旦大学法学博士,主攻中美关系方向,晨哨集团联合创始人、副总裁。2003年加入《21世纪经济报道》,历任国际新闻总监、头版委员会副主任,获2009年“南方报业年度记者”。接触中国十年,走访世界十余国家,问道全球商贾政要,关注政治经济的相生相长、中国与世界经济的互动趋势。
Catalogue

第一章中美经济外交与新型大国关系()
第一节经济外交角度观察中美关系的理论重要性()
第二节经济外交角度研究中美关系的历史重要性()
第三节中美经济外交研究现状()
第四节中美经济外交研究的方法论()
第二章国际经济秩序与中美经济外交()
第一节经济规则竞争与中国道路选择()
第二节中美经济外交理念与策略()
第三节规则红利与中美经济增长()
第四节共同规则下的制度竞逐()
第三章经济发展、权力转移与中美经济外交()
第一节经济发展、权力转移与中美经济外交()
第二节变化中的相互依存与中美经济外交()
第三节互补分工与中美经济外交()
第四章制度建设与中美经济外交着轨()
第一节中美经济外交初始化()
第二节中美经济外交正常化()
第三节中美经济外交机制化()
第四节中美经济外交包容化()
第五节中美经济外交竞治化()
第五章经济发展与中美经济外交目标及手段()
第一节中美经济外交目标与手段()
新型大国经济关系的生长目录第二节经济发展与中美经济外交目标及手段的演变()
第三节经济发展趋势与中美经济外交未来目标与手段()
Book Abstract

历史上大约有过15次新兴大国的崛起,其中有11次与既有大国之间发生了对抗和战争,即历史上一个崛起大国与既有大国竞争时,最后双方多数走向战争。那么正在崛起中的中国与既有大国美国的关系将如何发展?在纷繁复杂的竞争、合作、冲突中迎接战争还是和平?能否走出“修昔底德陷阱”——雅典的崛起引起斯巴达的恐惧从而爆发战争?
中国方面率先明确提出构建中美新型大国关系,避免大国兴衰的历史悲剧。新型大国关系的提出更多是中国方面的主动和诚意,这种关系的关键词是“不冲突、不对抗,相互尊重,合作共赢”。20世纪90年代,时任中共中央总书记江泽民发展了不结盟外交,积极致力于发展以“不结盟、不对抗、不针对第三方”为特征的新型大国关系;2012年5月4日,时任中共中央总书记胡锦涛在中美第四次战略与经济对话中发表了《推进互利共赢合作,发展新型大国关系》的演讲,提出中美伙伴关系应向新型大国关系发展。习近平担任中共中央总书记和中国国家主席以来,新一届中国政府将建设中美新型大国关系提高到前所未有的高度,态度非常诚恳,行动更加务实。而美国方面也最迟自克林顿政府以来就开始思考一个稳定和繁荣的、融入国际体系的中国对美国和世界才是安全的。
对于建设新型大国关系,处于战略优势一方的美国的态度一直是不公开否认也不公开接受。构建中美新型大国关系,最为关键的任务是要理顺中国崛起与美国守成的关系,这一关系是中美关系的基本结构特征。结构决定行为,行为规范结构演变结果。建设中美新型大国关系,先不管美国政府的接受诚意,仅从经济外交角度观察中美两国的持续努力,可以发现,30多年来中美新型大国经济关系已然在路上,正在为中美全面新型大国关系铺就道路、铸就压舱石。一、走出崛起国家和守成国家的历史窠臼美国是一个高度创新的国家,所谓守成的美国是从国际体系层面而言,尤其从美国是其主导的国际政治经济秩序的坚定维护者而不是革新者这一角度而言。中美经济关系的崛起和守成,可以从客观和主观两个层面来观察。新型大国经济关系的生长前言客观上,中国经济在绝对强势崛起中,美国在相对衰落中。从千年历史长河来看,中国经济正在崛起,以购买力平价计算,1700年,清康熙三十九年,中国GDP总量是美国的166倍,120年后的1820年是其18倍,80年后的1900年是其07倍,1950年是其0.2倍,2001年为0.6倍,2015年预计为1倍。根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)2014年公布的报告,以购买力平价计算,中国GDP已经与美国相当。把最近30多年历史放大来看,中国经济迅速崛起,1978年中国名义GDP是美国的8%,2013年中国名义GDP是美国的55%,2015年是美国的70%;1978年中国名义GDP占世界经济比重的2%,2013年占11%,美国1978年占世界经济比重的25%,2013年占21%,尤其是根据IMF统计,2007年起中国对全球经济增长的贡献超过美国居世界第一,美国经济相对衰落,中国成为世界经济增长第一引擎。同样按照名义GDP计算,基于中美经济增长和贸易的历史轨迹预测未来,最早于2025年左右中美经济总量相当,2087年左右中美贸易相互依存达致对称性地位。但在中国经济崛起的背后,中美经济存在巨大差距,2013年中国人均GDP为6767美元,美国人均为53152美元,中国人均GDP是美国的1273%,2013年美国经济总量与全球第二大经济体中国、第三的日本、第四的德国的经济量总和相当,全球经济格局总体依然是一极的世界。尽管差距巨大,但背后隐藏的趋势仍然是显著的,即一个经济力量上相对崛起的中国和经济力量上相对衰落的美国正在重构世界经济的顶层结构。中美经济的崛起和守成关系,不仅仅是经济实力的此起彼伏,更重要在于主观层面,中国一直以来都在呼吁和主张建立国际政治经济新秩序,而主导当前秩序的恰恰是美国,美国是这一秩序的主要设计者和坚守者。这从主观层面构成了崛起国家与守成国家的最重要特征,即国际关系经典理论中的挑战国和霸主国。中国提出构建中美新型大国关系,核心是“不冲突、不对抗,相互尊重,合作共赢”,就是要避免走过去崛起国家和守成国家走向冲突的老路。这种新型大国关系之所以“新”,在于不同于一战前崛起国家和守成国家那样走向战争,不同于二战后不同经济社会制度的苏联和美国这一对崛起国家和守成国家之间走向冷战,也不同于二战后具有相同经济社会制度的美国和德国、日本的经济崛起之间的博弈关系,中美新型大国关系是一种不同经济社会制度之间的崛起国家和守成国家之间的微妙关系,除了经济实力的此起彼伏外,还牵扯到价值观、基本经济制度和意识形态等一系列基本问题的处理能力和技巧。二、接触和开放政策的相互拥抱中美新型大国关系首先是不冲突的大国关系,结构现实主义很好地分析了国际体系的行为主体间是否会发生冲突的原因。结构现实主义大师肯尼思·沃尔兹认为,除了国际体系的规则和结构变化外,在一个缺乏权力中心和相互依存失范的国际体系里面,行为主体最容易发生冲突。借用结构现实主义分析框架,从国际体系的系统规则、系统结构、权力中心、主体间经济相互依存的发展与对相互依存的规范——中美经济外交的制度建设,这四个角度出发观察,发现一种新型的大国经济关系已然在中美两国间生长。就体系的系统规则而言,冷战结束前,世界格局和秩序可以概括为两大阵营和三个世界,即美国领导的资本主义阵营和苏联领导的社会主义阵营,第一世界的超级大国、第二世界的发达国家、第三世界的发展中国家。就国际体系而言,世界其实有两大阵营两种规则,第三世界试图建立一个新的秩序却由于实力局限并没有取得多少成效。

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